South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Mineiro vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1d4ea489420afcab7bcdbdc9f373827ffcfa5259e3fdf23a1e4198ba256c07a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 62c | 3,634$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,243.72 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 30c | 3,372$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360.4 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 2,302$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.52 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…8d4bbacked Over | 75c | 1,327$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.05 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 51c | 917$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 616.84$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.09 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 61c | 399.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 43c | 309.04$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.59 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 40c | 166.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…1613backed Over | 65c | 160.58$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 154.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 61c | 96.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 36c | 83.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…85b9backed Under | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2dd6backed Over | 72c | 54.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 50.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907f…19b1backed Over | 64c | 47.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…b03abacked Over | 43c | 46.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1c…c864backed Under | 44c | 45.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37f…6e8bbacked Under | 58c | 39.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…45efbacked Under | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…0aecbacked Over | 43c | 32.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362b…9534backed Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 42c | 28.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…4245backed Over | 40c | 26.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 43c | 23.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Over | 60c | 23.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bca…24aebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Over | 66c | 15.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab4…676fbacked Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Mineiro vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Mineiro vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Mineiro vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.