Premier League · resolved market
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-01-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf202bc6a8493da759dfc35a92ed75e0001795bfed7b09b94c73d8840e751ed41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 53c | 8,000$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,240 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Yes | 47c | 5,319$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819.15 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +12.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +41%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 56c | 3,385$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.78 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 54c | 1,262$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.21 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 54c | 1,152$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.99 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 1,105$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.85 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 53c | 499.98$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.99 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Yes | 46c | 398$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.6 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 53c | 385$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.05 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 54c | 172.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 45c | 159.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 495 | 44.2%219 W · 276 L | -20.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda50…2a41backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 47c | 99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Yes | 74c | 94.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 26c | 94.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 54c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 466 | 51.9%242 W · 224 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 45c | 53.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 46c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed No | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 169 | 53.3%90 W · 79 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Yes | 58c | 27.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 67c | 17.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-01-31?this page
- Will Oxford United FC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-01-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.