MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2294f62b6c73203072930698e3365c003aec4d24a96959798dfd97cdabcd12e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,222 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 1,281$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.58 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Houston Astros | 65c | 704$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.35 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 589$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.12 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 443.13$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.13 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 400$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 198$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.44 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 184$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.58 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Houston Astros | 64c | 177$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.89 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 153.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 77c | 104$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Houston Astros | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Houston Astros | 33c | 68.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Miami Marlins | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 47.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…ec46backed Houston Astros | 64c | 33.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…0c92backed Houston Astros | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.