Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Winter Bear (BO3) - EPL Championship Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf23c5fd83dc269be5850dba2f9864f5f90f65cce5ef05ff6372eeeaced398f10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, Winter Bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bbb…92efbacked Winter Bear | 72c | 192.21$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…ce91backed Team Lynx | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…03bbbacked Team Lynx | 43c | 115.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…b133backed Team Lynx | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Winter Bear | 45c | 98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…c14dbacked Team Lynx | 55c | 98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Winter Bear | 46c | 98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…6118backed Winter Bear | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…6aa4backed Team Lynx | 44c | 90.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Winter Bear | 36c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Lynx | 62c | 81.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx | 48c | 78.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Team Lynx | 68c | 73.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…0cd1backed Team Lynx | 25c | 56.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Winter Bear | 54c | 52.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Winter Bear | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Winter Bear | 56c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…6633backed Winter Bear | 77c | 29.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Team Lynx | 44c | 26.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Team Lynx | 59c | 23.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked Winter Bear | 68c | 20.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Winter Bear | 79c | 18.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa83…92ebbacked Winter Bear | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Winter Bear (BO3) - EPL Championship Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Winter Bear - Game 1 WinnerWinter Bear won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.