Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $1.40 April 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf384d55ec83a1e755e5faea343f027bd75c42b404732aa1344bcaa35301b06b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 69c | 3,998$2,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.05 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 18c | 1,305$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.83 | 100 | 1%1 W · 99 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 31c | 640.75$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.82 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked Yes | 36c | 275.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…6e62backed Yes | 31c | 259.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked No | 48c | 258.05$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc8…251abacked Yes | 37c | 245.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6773…aa95backed No | 72c | 191.94$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 36c | 181.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…a85bbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9725…46d0backed No | 35c | 64.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed Yes | 31c | 64.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40bc…d159backed No | 69c | 37.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x563f…ce64backed Yes | 37c | 36.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…8492backed No | 69c | 32.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…7415backed Yes | 36c | 29.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…7024backed Yes | 43c | 25.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7448…c8fabacked No | 49c | 20.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c69…1376backed No | 63c | 18.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $1.40 April 6-12?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.10 April 6-12?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 April 6-12?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.50 April 6-12?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 April 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.