Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2025-10-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3883e70a57743bf5bbb88b0a6f7615e06052b78fe5c3aeb88833c8015d94a16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 4c | 63,519$2,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,540.76 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 56c | 3,642$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.72 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Yes | 20c | 2,559$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 55c | 1,620$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.07 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…6e23backed Yes | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…d4d3backed Yes | 40c | 549.49$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 48c | 483.35$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.43 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Yes | 47c | 423.47$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Yes | 48c | 293.5$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 43c | 263.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.3 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed Yes | 46c | 246.91$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb95f…c250backed Yes | 48c | 208.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 70c | 188.42$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 45c | 188.29$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…aceebacked Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31bf…f08dbacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 44c | 152.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.34 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…95a6backed Yes | 20c | 150.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 51c | 149.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0314…8b59backed Yes | 55c | 125.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…9acfbacked Yes | 19c | 106.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…1952backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24a…d122backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…a62dbacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 57c | 88.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…bc8cbacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…758bbacked Yes | 40c | 62.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f52…6c18backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…0517backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a4…5eb3backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f46…cddbbacked Yes | 56c | 43.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…527dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…66afbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 45c | 38.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c5…8cadbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…f9e9backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…2276backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf7…abaabacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d0…246ebacked Yes | 44c | 29.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…9530backed Yes | 46c | 26.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac5…28d4backed Yes | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…ef72backed Yes | 55c | 19.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2025-10-23?this page
- Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Legia Warszawa end in a draw?No won
- Will Legia Warszawa win on 2025-10-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.