World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf38e07ea49af41525ccb103537b23099794ac8165a0309875209fc68d2df9fa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c8c…f5e2backed No | 4c | 21,160$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 1cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 388.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.19 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x538c…d669backed Yes | 26c | 254.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 55c | 199.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 59c | 197.61$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 16c | 144.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +215.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 28c | 135.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.78 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…b258backed No | 45c | 109.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked Yes | 14c | 102.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +181%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…2359backed Yes | 25c | 89.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 87.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 86.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 78c | 75.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 23c | 47.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 53c | 39.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 42c | 34.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 40c | 28.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 78c | 25.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 68c | 21.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 73c | 16.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.