Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3a485c8b3b92642053c36359d1ba953beb4ebb833b633b0d884bcf1abf68994
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Osakaof Osaka, Alexandrova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed Osaka | 46c | 380$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Osaka | 37c | 376.64$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.25 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Osaka | 34c | 348.3$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.88 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Alexandrova | 66c | 302.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Alexandrova | 51c | 240$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Osaka | 39c | 105$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Alexandrova | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Alexandrova | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Alexandrova | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Alexandrova | 61c | 45.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Alexandrova | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Osaka | 50c | 25.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Alexandrova | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Alexandrova | 62c | 18.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5)this page
- Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina AlexandrovaNaomi Osaka won
- Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs AlexandrovaOsaka won
- Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs AlexandrovaOsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.