Serie A · resolved market
Will AC Milan beat AS Roma?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3ac8530e3d56fbb9aced1a01ab10988f14266ba30d3845c7a2101ef5e655706
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 70c | 1,785$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,668$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 30c | 1,305$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.58 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…c293backed Yes | 34c | 1,066$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 70c | 571.36$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 70c | 340$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 30c | 152.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 67c | 78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a9…223abacked Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…0d0fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan beat AS Roma? this page
- Will AS Roma beat AC Milan?Yes won
- Will AS Roma vs. AC Milan end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.