NHL · resolved market
SHL: Vaexjoe vs. Faerjestad
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3e25c660fe53539f767a4e1418c8734a6f108c59b46a52addd6a1586031f6a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vaexjoeof Vaexjoe, Faerjestad
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b5…8cd4backed Faerjestad | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x590c…eacfbacked Vaexjoe | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bf…cc7bbacked Vaexjoe | 51c | 990$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb14d…ca32backed Faerjestad | 49c | 990$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Faerjestad | 51c | 209.32$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.28 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Faerjestad | 49c | 128.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Vaexjoe | 48c | 101.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Vaexjoe | 51c | 85.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Vaexjoe | 51c | 82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…b668backed Vaexjoe | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2504…4497backed Faerjestad | 49c | 46.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Vaexjoe | 51c | 42.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Faerjestad | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Faerjestad | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…0bd1backed Vaexjoe | 52c | 38.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2e…bf82backed Vaexjoe | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Faerjestad | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Vaexjoe | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.