CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs magic - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3fe9132529ff32bed9bcdfb1d1ad140c70f5ebf34f1307a33152533ae16f2bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- magicof HOTU, magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,700 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked HOTU | 53c | 926.57$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491 | 164 | 48.2%79 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked magic | 44c | 564.41$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.57 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed HOTU | 60c | 535.54$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.46 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…8d42backed magic | 48c | 426.92$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.92 | 529 | 47.1%249 W · 280 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…1aa1backed HOTU | 76c | 132.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked magic | 71c | 98.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed magic | 37c | 62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8d51…7317backed magic | 39c | 46.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed magic | 47c | 45.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…a435backed HOTU | 66c | 39.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 70cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…d8cebacked HOTU | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked HOTU | 53c | 32.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b77…2737backed HOTU | 63c | 31.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs magic - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs magic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsmagic won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs magic - Map 1 Winnermagic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.