CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs magic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d9cbf08885159f0a10294afa1abd63085b466329ea30ed356510e0cfb9c128d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- magicof HOTU, magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,762 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked magic | 64c | 4,690$3,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.13 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked HOTU | 34c | 1,484$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.11 | 164 | 48.2%79 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed HOTU | 37c | 1,361$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.12 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed magic | 65c | 780.57$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.94 | 4,238 | 49.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L | +60.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6145…36babacked HOTU | 30c | 740.25$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…7fdcbacked magic | 71c | 533.09$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked magic | 43c | 491.17$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.95 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed HOTU | 44c | 469.16$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.43 | 170 | 34.7%59 W · 111 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed HOTU | 32c | 457.07$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.46 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed magic | 67c | 410.76$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.35 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb16c…4ceabacked HOTU | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 157 | 56.1%88 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…1aa1backed HOTU | 58c | 298.08$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.89 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…9098backed HOTU | 58c | 282.13$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.64 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed magic | 63c | 271.79$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.39 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed magic | 43c | 259.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.66 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…f9d1backed HOTU | 30c | 230.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81c…a724backed HOTU | 67c | 178.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked HOTU | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked magic | 42c | 142$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 543 | 48.6%264 W · 279 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…43c8backed HOTU | 42c | 141.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…68bfbacked HOTU | 11c | 140.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed HOTU | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 590 | 49.7%293 W · 297 L | -31.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4139…8622backed magic | 75c | 133.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…6fc8backed HOTU | 41c | 121.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked magic | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb2…a688backed magic | 65c | 119.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked HOTU | 32c | 109.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,087 | 31.9%347 W · 740 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…dfadbacked HOTU | 10c | 104$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…8795backed HOTU | 56c | 92.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked magic | 60c | 82.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked magic | 76c | 82.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…6c2bbacked magic | 64c | 77.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…4371backed HOTU | 33c | 77.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 873 | 51.2%447 W · 426 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…a435backed magic | 69c | 74.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 70cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed HOTU | 57c | 71.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked HOTU | 60c | 69.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a38…2a21backed HOTU | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked HOTU | 57c | 61.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 3,236 | 51.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L | +88.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked HOTU | 35c | 52.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 216 | 23.6%51 W · 165 L | -27.4wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5206…0f4cbacked HOTU | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 35.7%95 W · 171 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed HOTU | 34c | 49.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 700 | 32%224 W · 476 L | -45.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b5…2524backed magic | 64c | 49.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked magic | 42c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 1,723 | 46.8%807 W · 916 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…44e8backed HOTU | 25c | 48.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed HOTU | 33c | 44.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked HOTU | 33c | 43.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked HOTU | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed magic | 36c | 39.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b5…56abbacked magic | 69c | 39.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf12…569cbacked magic | 70c | 37.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed HOTU | 59c | 37.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5de…88dabacked magic | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec2…3987backed magic | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked magic | 57c | 19.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed magic | 67c | 19.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…8a3cbacked magic | 75c | 15.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs magic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs magic - Map 1 Winnermagic won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs magic - Map 2 Winnermagic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.