Tennis · resolved market
Kitzbuehel: Mona Barthel vs Arabella Koller
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf40f37c9a25d9a762781755f6c69ee8cc258b4727ac75861a5c67918b0c97f2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mona Barthelof Mona Barthel, Arabella Koller
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arabella Koller | 2c | 23,285$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.33 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arabella Koller | 24c | 7,901$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.34 | 937 | 40.6%380 W · 557 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mona Barthel | 77c | 4,611$3,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.29 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Arabella Koller | 8c | 4,386$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.49 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Arabella Koller | 9c | 4,241$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.66 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arabella Koller | 15c | 2,807$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.86 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Arabella Koller | 1c | 2,700$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 314 | 43.6%137 W · 177 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Mona Barthel | 70c | 1,998$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.4 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arabella Koller | 8c | 1,694$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.44 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arabella Koller | 32c | 800$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.33 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…e6c5backed Arabella Koller | 3c | 759.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 178 | 18%32 W · 146 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Arabella Koller | 26c | 624.53$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.98 | 1,363 | 38.3%522 W · 841 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…f740backed Arabella Koller | 6c | 499.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | -16.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…a593backed Arabella Koller | 12c | 406.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 429 | 30.5%131 W · 298 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8100…1d33backed Mona Barthel | 79c | 377.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 117 | 65%76 W · 41 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…84e9backed Arabella Koller | 8c | 332.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…94c8backed Arabella Koller | 7c | 299.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Arabella Koller | 12c | 282.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Arabella Koller | 15c | 272.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 921 | 45.2%416 W · 505 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Arabella Koller | 18c | 184.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Arabella Koller | 20c | 179$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Mona Barthel | 78c | 170.53$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…9c0cbacked Mona Barthel | 72c | 146$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Arabella Koller | 10c | 110.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9527…f108backed Mona Barthel | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 527 | 39.3%207 W · 320 L | +37.6wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Arabella Koller | 13c | 95.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Arabella Koller | 30c | 95.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 434 | 44.9%195 W · 239 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Mona Barthel | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Arabella Koller | 22c | 66.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Arabella Koller | 18c | 58.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Mona Barthel | 60c | 28.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Mona Barthel | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…5696backed Mona Barthel | 77c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 216 | 88%190 W · 26 L | +35.2wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf76…02b8backed Mona Barthel | 79c | 17.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed Mona Barthel | 65c | 15.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 266 | 64.7%172 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.