Fifa International · resolved market
Algeria vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf430e9dd0da5700cc51ccb0c63253055883b3445bbb32df4eca457b29e40c24f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 54c | 766.98$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.17 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 45c | 729.64$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.3 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +21.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Over | 46c | 576.22$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 519.38$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.01 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 52c | 469.1$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.98 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 55c | 286.37$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 55c | 220.89$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 52c | 182$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 136 | 43.4%59 W · 77 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 48c | 182$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 54c | 181.37$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 45c | 151.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 328 | 55.8%183 W · 145 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Under | 55c | 141.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Over | 46c | 130.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 155 | 46.5%72 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 55c | 125.76$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 55c | 121.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 116.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 60c | 110.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd419…0d64backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 35c | 63.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 451 | 20.6%93 W · 358 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 467 | 43.3%202 W · 265 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 47c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a9…7876backed Under | 56c | 45.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 48c | 41.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…039bbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…5ab5backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…4989backed Under | 48c | 32.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 30.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 44c | 23.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Algeria vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5this page
- Algeria vs. Guatemala: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Algeria vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5Over won
- Algeria vs. Guatemala: O/U 3.5Over won
- Algeria vs. Guatemala: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Algeria (-1.5)Algeria won
- Spread: Algeria (-2.5)Algeria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.