Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on February 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf483428b4d2d745ede58b647fe6ed40e14ae21cf155cdb77cbbce38225b523fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 22c | 675.51$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.59 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 593.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 3c | 409.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 35c | 348.33$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.97 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 30c | 300$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 249.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.88 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 66c | 155.53$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…e7cbbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 37c | 98.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 98.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 62c | 79.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 39c | 71.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5876…793fbacked Yes | 65c | 70.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…bb41backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 56.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 60c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 80c | 50.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…328ebacked No | 73c | 44.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 38c | 43.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 43.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 61c | 36.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 50c | 29.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 75c | 29.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…9d89backed No | 76c | 26.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 77c | 19.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed Yes | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on February 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 74°F or higher on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.