Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf49ccc4d2e3445a2572e733a2e74ebfda8ae1ad2626ef8b2340be9c30083fb76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 48c | 290.57$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.35 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 269.7$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 180.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 55c | 157.47$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 44c | 104.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 94.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 42c | 92.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 11c | 91.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…bebfbacked No | 15c | 82.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 63c | 76.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 42c | 71.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 35c | 68.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 67.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 58.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 31c | 55.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 47.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe776…ad55backed No | 65c | 45.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 35.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 69c | 33.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 32.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c6…f2dcbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 48c | 28.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 66c | 24.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 72c | 20.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 67c | 20.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 79c | 12.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 16°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.