NHL · resolved market
Blues vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5131600d836278d34ce0994cfea142874ce0e27695b4e074f442f902dced153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 4,977$2,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,488.61 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa496…c6a4backed Under | 51c | 2,148$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf108…83a3backed Under | 51c | 1,582$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a2…8cb7backed Under | 51c | 1,532$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…b770backed Under | 51c | 1,422$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9993…a11cbacked Over | 49c | 1,125$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117e…7478backed Over | 49c | 1,023$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…ba11backed Over | 49c | 963$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…110dbacked Over | 49c | 932$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…2729backed Under | 51c | 843$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…002fbacked Under | 51c | 835$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09c…bc3dbacked Over | 49c | 826$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd56…ddc7backed Over | 49c | 826$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc022…7f91backed Over | 49c | 789$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe378…1faabacked Over | 49c | 756$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…eb0cbacked Under | 51c | 752$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a72…ece1backed Over | 49c | 751$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7c…c52fbacked Over | 49c | 746$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…589cbacked Under | 51c | 725$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Under | 52c | 692.31$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.31 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 690.41$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.4 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…ac7fbacked Over | 49c | 596$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc9…133dbacked Over | 49c | 399$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 327$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.23 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 49c | 267.96$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.66 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 51c | 266$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Over | 67c | 250$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 33c | 250$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…dffebacked Under | 51c | 220$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Over | 51c | 196.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Over | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 799 | 56.1%448 W · 351 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 50c | 55.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…9d8cbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blues vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5this page
- Blues vs. Blue JacketsBlue Jackets won
- Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.