Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs Valentova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf51f09a149cbab4002ee3a1d5ca183f99b6e0018c73140063b035da8b3200b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shnaiderof Shnaider, Valentova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,214 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4772…0a60backed Valentova | 49c | 5,717$2,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0f…e601backed Shnaider | 51c | 4,291$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e19…59f3backed Valentova | 49c | 3,640$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f24…68c2backed Shnaider | 51c | 3,267$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee10…2c44backed Shnaider | 51c | 1,857$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Valentova | 19c | 857.14$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.12 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shnaider | 58c | 515.89$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.91 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Valentova | 55c | 386.98$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.02 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shnaider | 48c | 297.84$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.88 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Valentova | 58c | 160.17$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Valentova | 49c | 67.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Valentova | 54c | 45.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs Valentovathis page
- Diana Shnaider vs. Tereza Valentova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Diana Shnaider vs Tereza ValentovaDiana Shnaider won
- Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Valentova (+1.5)Shnaider won
- Shnaider vs. Valentova: Match O/U 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.