Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Riyo Yoshida vs Kurea Hayasaka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf572a8a60dfd3bfba9fd1aaf6b2997cd3b4e8937328dd48ee457e482303a63c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kurea Hayasakaof Riyo Yoshida, Kurea Hayasaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Kurea Hayasaka | 68c | 6,435$4,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.83 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Riyo Yoshida | 31c | 2,345$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.54 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Riyo Yoshida | 34c | 776$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.72 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Riyo Yoshida | 36c | 748.49$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.33 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…eb76backed Riyo Yoshida | 27c | 544.93$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 183 | 30.1%55 W · 128 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Kurea Hayasaka | 67c | 457.76$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.81 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Riyo Yoshida | 22c | 446.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Riyo Yoshida | 20c | 377.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…b15bbacked Riyo Yoshida | 33c | 318$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Riyo Yoshida | 33c | 313$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.07 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Riyo Yoshida | 33c | 236.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Riyo Yoshida | 24c | 234.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Riyo Yoshida | 26c | 170$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 150 | 53.3%80 W · 70 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Riyo Yoshida | 14c | 136.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5c…a409backed Riyo Yoshida | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Riyo Yoshida | 15c | 74.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Riyo Yoshida | 32c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 152 | 61.8%94 W · 58 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Riyo Yoshida | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Riyo Yoshida | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Kurea Hayasaka | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 268 | 68.3%183 W · 85 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Kurea Hayasaka | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.