Other European Leagues · resolved market
SC Braga vs. FC Alverca: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5a26e42b8e53ae50ff64935ab6488e4343b0e6b1c54e1895c90e62ea0753257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 3,367$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.39 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Over | 75c | 1,337$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.16 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Over | 46c | 1,160$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.13 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 794$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.4 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 64c | 729.99$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.6 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 45c | 444.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.24 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 46c | 435.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.54 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 399.51$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.46 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…7627backed Over | 63c | 317.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.54 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 217.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed Over | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 63c | 190.48$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Under | 25c | 110.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 105.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Under | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 90 | 33.3%30 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 55c | 96.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 65c | 78.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…9182backed Over | 76c | 22.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 75c | 17.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…2765backed Over | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 70c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Braga vs. FC Alverca: O/U 4.5this page
- SC Braga vs. FC Alverca: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Braga vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Braga vs. FC Alverca: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Braga vs. FC Alverca: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.