CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Abyssal (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #3 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5e90a784f8ed08fb9db2a7757ff16470d28a78d49aaddc7836958f3d1b8061f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Abyssalof Arcade Esports, Abyssal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Arcade Esports | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 0%0 W · 103 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f4…92b2backed Arcade Esports | 56c | 538.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Abyssal | 48c | 495.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.77 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf76…db81backed Arcade Esports | 52c | 495.31$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.56 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4235…69cbbacked Abyssal | 47c | 493.78$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77f…05a4backed Arcade Esports | 52c | 485.6$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.51 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa69…6e45backed Abyssal | 47c | 484.1$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.57 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Arcade Esports | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 313 | 28.4%89 W · 224 L | -21.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…215ebacked Abyssal | 33c | 287.74$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.74 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Arcade Esports | 52c | 269.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…c9a0backed Abyssal | 58c | 261.4$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arcade Esports | 40c | 207.31$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Abyssal | 52c | 204.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Abyssal | 59c | 164.7$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | -20.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…471fbacked Abyssal | 51c | 103.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 357 | 52.9%189 W · 168 L | +22.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked Arcade Esports | 34c | 101.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 416 | 40.6%169 W · 247 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c92…5567backed Arcade Esports | 34c | 101.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Arcade Esports | 50c | 91.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Abyssal | 59c | 82.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Arcade Esports | 68c | 78.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…8aeabacked Arcade Esports | 57c | 77.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Arcade Esports | 49c | 69.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Arcade Esports | 49c | 69.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Arcade Esports | 57c | 65.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed Arcade Esports | 56c | 58.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf2…1e5bbacked Arcade Esports | 54c | 57.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arcade Esports | 47c | 49.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Abyssal | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Abyssal | 50c | 46.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Arcade Esports | 44c | 45.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Arcade Esports | 61c | 44.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 517 | 55.9%289 W · 228 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Abyssal | 32c | 44.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Abyssal | 37c | 42.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f2…f490backed Arcade Esports | 54c | 39.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…a15fbacked Arcade Esports | 50c | 38.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Arcade Esports | 51c | 37.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -13.4wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Arcade Esports | 68c | 35.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed Abyssal | 44c | 35.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 404 | 57.2%231 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…1002backed Arcade Esports | 61c | 35.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 278 | 48.6%135 W · 143 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Arcade Esports | 55c | 35.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 336 | 57.1%192 W · 144 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Abyssal | 44c | 29.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Abyssal | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 544 | 39.7%216 W · 328 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…9c5bbacked Arcade Esports | 46c | 22.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Arcade Esports | 52c | 22.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…f616backed Arcade Esports | 73c | 14.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.