Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf63199848ce9239a477f10dae064c25d40ff01c96e4746154aea3cffbb235eb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 65c | 860.65$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.23 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 34c | 286.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 232.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…a9e6backed Yes | 42c | 136.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 135.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6c…744ebacked Yes | 38c | 131.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17b…3f39backed Yes | 32c | 118.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 34c | 106.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…d62ebacked Yes | 35c | 98.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 22c | 97.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 94.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 90.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb334…f6e4backed Yes | 31c | 79.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 32c | 79.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 76c | 79.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 70.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 35c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…b55fbacked Yes | 28c | 55.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…8bc2backed Yes | 35c | 49.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…6521backed No | 74c | 31.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 71c | 27.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…f3e0backed No | 74c | 27.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 22.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…d382backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…fd63backed No | 72c | 16.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…2f76backed No | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.