Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate David M. Friedman for Israeli Ambassador?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf637471f14920de99d3c9bdb467dbc247d54646d4f2c257330788dd10acff9ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,463$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb768…b111backed Yes | 1c | 1,068$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…97a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,067$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…034bbacked No | 50c | 215$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f8…25a6backed Yes | 50c | 215$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…ee35backed No | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3695…8d0cbacked Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe984…6bccbacked No | 50c | 205$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…81ccbacked Yes | 50c | 205$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d3…a2edbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 54c | 55.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 39c | 49.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 58c | 45.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 31c | 41.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…0e71backed Yes | 56c | 35.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate David M. Friedman for Israeli Ambassador?this page
- Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Israeli Ambassador?No won
- Will Trump nominate Miriam Adelson for Israeli Ambassador?No won
- Will Trump nominate Peter Deutsch for Israeli Ambassador?No won
- Will Trump nominate another person for Israeli Ambassador?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.