Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2025-11-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6a2e347b0702994fa90545151f379c6e3b9236234a50c947721d91cb5f9e1bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 20c | 16,446$3,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,277.93 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 78c | 7,870$6,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…3aa5backed No | 18c | 5,278$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +77%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Yes | 78c | 3,482$2,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 15c | 2,221$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.49 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…43fbbacked Yes | 80c | 1,143$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 10c | 749.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…4c8cbacked No | 17c | 504.25$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…4295backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 18c | 455$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…bdf4backed Yes | 79c | 411.55$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 18c | 309.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 22c | 250.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked No | 18c | 240.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…897bbacked Yes | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked No | 16c | 153.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…b403backed Yes | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…0b8dbacked No | 17c | 114.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 20c | 111.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 16c | 111$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 13c | 96.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 15c | 86.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…d2d8backed Yes | 80c | 43.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf47e…5031backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1435…0028backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2025-11-06?this page
- Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. UMF Breiðablik end in a draw?No won
- Will UMF Breiðablik win on 2025-11-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.