Asian League · resolved market
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6b0547ee63920047c38ced367896c1cbaea08d2b383d84548129b74aab2f5f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $528,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $761,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $528,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 17c | 80,000$13,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,600 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 17c | 51,069$8,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,681.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 17c | 27,870$4,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,658.45 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked No | 18c | 27,542$4,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,863.79 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 20c | 20,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 8c | 16,887$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.57 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 16c | 10,222$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.85 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 17c | 5,300$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 2c | 4,991$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 20c | 3,326$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 20c | 2,693$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.26 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 5c | 2,159$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ec…427dbacked No | 22c | 1,370$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…aa68backed No | 17c | 1,350$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 18c | 1,275$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.35 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf987…6ea7backed No | 4c | 990.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…b7f6backed No | 17c | 570.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Yes | 80c | 537$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 20c | 528.83$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 275 | 40.7%112 W · 163 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 6c | 448.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 5c | 318.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 89 | 6.7%6 W · 83 L | -22.4wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…e2c1backed No | 17c | 294.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d3…45c3backed No | 15c | 254.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 14c | 234$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…cd55backed No | 19c | 206$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 17c | 199.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 150 | 35.3%53 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 13c | 190$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 80c | 188$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked No | 19c | 165$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 17c | 153$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 299 | 17.4%52 W · 247 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 19c | 116.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Yes | 80c | 103.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…5acebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 18c | 96.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…121cbacked No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed No | 18c | 94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…d35bbacked No | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5baf…3904backed Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed No | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…b523backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7209…a358backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed No | 18c | 60.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…2a83backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…dd2bbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f23…e2c8backed Yes | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0683…8689backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100b…7641backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-26?this page
- Will Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club end in a draw?No won
- Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2025-12-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.