MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6e9c9d839d0d4f3598d22ea2f265b78987b61418228ab1c57d24611a583aac3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1331…3d82backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 149 | 66.4%99 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 56c | 598.6$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.37 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 56c | 434.72$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.58 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb33b…18efbacked Yes | 45c | 119.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…3e3cbacked Yes | 45c | 115.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…a9f8backed No | 58c | 114.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…a768backed No | 58c | 111.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…65febacked No | 59c | 110.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…cf01backed Yes | 44c | 107.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.1wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb219…9f58backed No | 58c | 89.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6205…19febacked Yes | 45c | 88.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…981dbacked Yes | 45c | 86.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303f…4c97backed Yes | 45c | 80.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…5ea0backed No | 58c | 75.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 55c | 63.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a5…3120backed No | 58c | 62.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…f218backed No | 60c | 56.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…0d55backed Yes | 45c | 56.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…5283backed Yes | 44c | 55.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 55c | 55.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…74fbbacked Yes | 45c | 55.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e3…fff7backed No | 60c | 51.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…5e7cbacked No | 58c | 48.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f82…ebc2backed No | 58c | 37.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…d587backed Yes | 46c | 35.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ec…7c9abacked No | 60c | 32.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…b9ccbacked Yes | 44c | 30.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…f2cebacked No | 60c | 22.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Pirates vs. CardinalsPirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.