Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7821526bf5fe0bd08ed7945252fab2326257ca5677ed8007b63a815cbe8e76f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6396…aff3backed No | 1c | 2,643$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 9c | 1,191$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 62c | 861.9$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…02a9backed No | 5c | 578.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…b863backed No | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed No | 5c | 274.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 5c | 272.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3767…bbc0backed No | 6c | 262.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 6c | 260$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 6c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 7c | 196.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 24c | 193.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…e927backed No | 5c | 186.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 41c | 183.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 43c | 155.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 146.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 53c | 109.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 83.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 45c | 81.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 57c | 80.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed No | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 58c | 69.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 45c | 66.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 79c | 63.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 48c | 50.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 36c | 47.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…8ca1backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 36.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…ffeabacked Yes | 66c | 30.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 46c | 25.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 61c | 23.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 53c | 23.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…4637backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C or higher on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C or below on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.