Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf872f3171cfedd2395ad248c4f195dc480fc096e718025e1bdf7aff5ab04128b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 279.52$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…c490backed No | 76c | 161.47$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 40c | 154.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 35c | 145$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 9c | 128.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 13c | 85.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 79.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 110 | 24.5%27 W · 83 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 60.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 44c | 56.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 52.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 52.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 36c | 50.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 50.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 642 | 76.6%492 W · 150 L | +98.3wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,275 | 47.6%607 W · 668 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 55c | 39.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 33c | 37.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 42c | 35.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 37c | 34.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 63c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 32.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 34c | 32.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 39c | 32.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 58c | 28.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 59c | 28.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 27.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 50c | 24.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 939 | 2.4%23 W · 916 L | -386.8wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 71c | 22.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,046 | 68.7%719 W · 327 L | -33.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 340 | 61.8%210 W · 130 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 490 | 49%240 W · 250 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.