Mls · resolved market
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Portland Timbers: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf920c08501e5362ea6e02b530b7c384908241ad99f46e0237a35ea191a064b2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcba9…f812backed Yes | 36c | 3,372$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 62c | 2,092$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.72 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 38c | 1,071$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 64c | 593.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.84 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…5f07backed Yes | 44c | 504.09$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 65c | 400.23$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 64c | 312$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 299.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 270$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 65c | 128$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 64c | 83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b2…bdc4backed Yes | 24c | 61.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 65c | 57.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. Portland Timbers: Draw at halftime?this page
- Portland Timbers leading at halftime?Yes won
- Seattle Sounders FC leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.