TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Vici Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Vici Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,129 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47c6…2fe4backed Vici Gaming61c500$305 inWon+$19514849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfe6…94f1backed Xtreme Gaming39c500$195 inLost-$195616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick59cpaid-78.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Vici Gaming63c300$189 inWon+$11142145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Xtreme Gaming37c290$107 inLost-$107.317146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Xtreme Gaming42c166.88$70 inLost-$70.09955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xabe5…d99abacked Vici Gaming58c100$58 inWon+$4238649.5%191 W · 195 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Vici Gaming58c74.26$43 inWon+$31.1970236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c88…5463backed Xtreme Gaming42c57.38$24 inLost-$24450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Vici Gaming58c40$23 inWon+$16.860542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.