Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x899f0aa5df6b0aa10251f6d2e042f42cd6ead0be865ff49e1c9b5d4183e39ea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,127 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Under | 50c | 2,445$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.79 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f6…dbd1backed Over | 50c | 1,985$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.16 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…6cdbbacked Over | 49c | 1,219$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over | 49c | 905$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.6 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 545$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.28 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…c217backed Over | 48c | 530$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd77f…05a4backed Under | 51c | 530$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 54cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 51c | 519.99$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.29 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Under | 51c | 278.5$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 48c | 258.41$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Under | 51c | 109.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed Over | 51c | 107.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 51c | 83.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Under | 51c | 79.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 49c | 65.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 50c | 55.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf10…ab22backed Over | 52c | 48.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…7affbacked Over | 51c | 48.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Over | 52c | 47.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 311 | 43.4%135 W · 176 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…fababacked Over | 48c | 29.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Under | 41c | 27.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageVici Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 WinnerVici Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 2?Xtreme Gaming won
- Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)Vici Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.