Tennis · resolved market
Tigre 2: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Valerio Aboian
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9bd9bba7d746f4ac7721d88b58623022f1fea4fa88837f00c0f57def3e29146
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sernaof Serna, Aboian
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked Aboian | 62c | 3,782$2,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,344.55 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Aboian | 35c | 1,311$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.04 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Serna | 50c | 628.98$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.98 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Aboian | 20c | 564.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aboian | 47c | 460.32$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.57 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…fa35backed Aboian | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…2b3abacked Serna | 51c | 395.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.71 | 503 | 64.6%325 W · 178 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Serna | 58c | 391.92$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.29 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Aboian | 40c | 231.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Serna | 65c | 221.77$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Serna | 57c | 212.69$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.46 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Serna | 60c | 208.84$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aboian | 49c | 195$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Serna | 48c | 163$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Serna | 70c | 143.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Aboian | 49c | 142.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Serna | 73c | 141.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Aboian | 30c | 125$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Aboian | 43c | 112.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 556 | 41.2%229 W · 327 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Serna | 55c | 110.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Aboian | 43c | 101.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 432 | 42.4%183 W · 249 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Aboian | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…942bbacked Aboian | 48c | 75.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Serna | 79c | 74.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 290 | 63.8%185 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed Serna | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 235 | 54.5%128 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Serna | 52c | 58.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 219 | 57.1%125 W · 94 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Aboian | 42c | 58.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Aboian | 22c | 50.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 262 | 44.7%117 W · 145 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Serna | 78c | 45.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…609abacked Aboian | 34c | 37.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Aboian | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 976 | 44.6%435 W · 541 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Aboian | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…83c4backed Aboian | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 276 | 64.1%177 W · 99 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Serna | 51c | 25.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Serna | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 355 | 59.4%211 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Serna | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 770 | 47.9%369 W · 401 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…5027backed Serna | 57c | 19.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.