Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa23566ae42b9c95c67148b915ee14a1c681f6fea0fa4ebcfbd1a95b819f5f8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,275$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,112$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.24 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc5…af1cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,899$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 76 | 9.2%7 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 9c | 969.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00d…6ffdbacked Yes | 3c | 682.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 15c | 557.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 7c | 443.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 5c | 273.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 263.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 37c | 121.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 35c | 82.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed Yes | 30c | 52.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…e6d2backed No | 67c | 31.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…ab19backed No | 55c | 18.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 55c | 18.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac5d…7235backed No | 55c | 18.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ab…4be1backed No | 60c | 16.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…bc33backed No | 65c | 16.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…95b3backed No | 65c | 15.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed No | 65c | 15.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked No | 65c | 15.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked No | 70c | 14.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed No | 70c | 14.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…67f7backed No | 70c | 14.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 75c | 13.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 24°C or higher on February 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.