Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 24°C or higher on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54762fb66195a8216081b6d5bc009a17d3e7c674bd268ffdf30ab36757d6d342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 6c | 2,632$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,487.45 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,251$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…f385backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 1cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd35c…0d5dbacked Yes | 3c | 433.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +791.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…82b3backed Yes | 56c | 275$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 18c | 260.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.26 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked No | 45c | 256.91$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 73c | 210.54$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 64c | 176.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 69c | 133.76$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 129.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.37 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 28c | 108.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 60c | 83.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 66c | 81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 35c | 69.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 17c | 68.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x330a…6f8cbacked No | 39c | 51.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c5…1138backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 75c | 47.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 46c | 45.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 27c | 44.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 38c | 43.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcb…602abacked No | 36c | 43.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 36c | 38.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 63c | 38.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 37c | 32.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 72c | 28.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 71c | 28.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 63c | 23.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 65c | 22.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…e779backed Yes | 67c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed Yes | 69c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…95b3backed No | 69c | 14.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed No | 69c | 14.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked No | 69c | 14.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 24°C or higher on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C on February 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.