Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Olympiacos beat FK Qarabag?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa249b01d69efd48aead326f57e97a854256f86895a2ea91a5286ebef820a4b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 33c | 647.34$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.55 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 24c | 570.27$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.56 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 63c | 479.37$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.37 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -61%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed Yes | 76c | 449$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 74c | 446.71$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.39 | 121 | 66.9%81 W · 40 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 37c | 329.35$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…df5ebacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d1…2056backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 73c | 36.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…f5cfbacked Yes | 70c | 32.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa7…5284backed Yes | 73c | 30.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…2c00backed No | 39c | 29.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…f72bbacked Yes | 57c | 29.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8851…70e4backed Yes | 75c | 27.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45c…40e9backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77cb…da6dbacked No | 43c | 23.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc871…1d7bbacked Yes | 73c | 22.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd35a…00d2backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…471bbacked Yes | 73c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…4a2dbacked Yes | 61c | 16.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2562…1163backed Yes | 76c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44d…c87bbacked Yes | 74c | 15.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…5ce5backed Yes | 74c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…806fbacked Yes | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympiacos beat FK Qarabag?this page
- Will FK Qarabag beat Olympiacos?No won
- Will the match between Olympiacos and FK Qarabag end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.