Europa Conference League · resolved market
AEK vs. NK Celje: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa63686dca4011586245b396817d12556ea4f5fabe35f91cdf5552f9a8b32e0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,799 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 11c | 601.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 14c | 548.65$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3c…5d53backed Under | 22c | 340.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…10adbacked Over | 78c | 340.73$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 16c | 279.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 18c | 236.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 18c | 229.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 16c | 183.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 16c | 135.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 16c | 124.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 15c | 115.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 73c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AEK vs. NK Celje: O/U 1.5this page
- AEK vs. NK Celje: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AEK vs. NK Celje: O/U 2.5Under won
- AEK vs. NK Celje: O/U 3.5Under won
- AEK vs. NK Celje: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AEK (-1.5)NK Celje won
- Spread: NK Celje (-1.5)NK Celje won
- Spread: NK Celje (-2.5)AEK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.