Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa7e89c6b1b59432f5ddbfe98d3900be82f6e26a507c50d73b77e114b957e031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 148.03$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 140.28$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 20c | 124$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 31c | 103.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 97.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 94.56$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 94.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 91.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 91.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 24c | 84.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 75c | 80.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 23c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 60c | 69.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 30c | 67.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 34c | 65.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 62.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked Yes | 30c | 54.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed No | 54c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 23c | 53.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 23c | 50.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 50.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 71c | 49.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 72c | 49.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 43.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 42.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 72c | 41.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 53c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 37c | 35.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 61c | 25.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 24.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 24.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 62c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 78c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 63c | 19.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 70c | 18.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 16.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 13.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.