South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Sarmiento vs. Racing Club: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa87dd739da1e70625e547a8e9928909b547204b97044c28650f974a3f810033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,838 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 16c | 313$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x445d…0643backed Over | 22c | 288.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…23edbacked Over | 22c | 288.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…df11backed Under | 78c | 288.46$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4a…1e2bbacked Under | 78c | 288.46$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 16c | 278.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 80 | 21.3%17 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…1f3abacked Over | 22c | 197.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…ac51backed Under | 78c | 197.71$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 16c | 124.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Sarmiento vs. Racing Club: O/U 3.5this page
- CA Sarmiento vs. Racing Club: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Sarmiento vs. Racing Club: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Sarmiento vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Sarmiento vs. Racing Club: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-1.5)Racing Club won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-2.5)Racing Club won
- Spread: Racing Club (-1.5)CA Sarmiento won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.