South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Sarmiento vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0b7c7d75493e0a184ac47a3b4014557aacf7a61c1856c148302d340a99a737b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,979 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 8,868$5,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,898.7 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 34c | 6,670$2,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,267.78 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 35c | 3,224$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.33 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 1,517$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.58 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 29c | 1,039$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.79 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 65c | 269.42$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 65c | 190$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 27c | 177.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 494 | 40.9%202 W · 292 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 64c | 124.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 67c | 118.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 65c | 98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Under | 69c | 90.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Under | 69c | 83.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 68c | 70.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 112 | 62.5%70 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 68c | 38.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 65c | 36.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…f69fbacked Under | 65c | 25.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 72c | 22.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…b02fbacked Under | 65c | 15.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 72c | 15.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Sarmiento vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Sarmiento vs. Racing Club: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Sarmiento vs. Racing Club: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Sarmiento vs. Racing Club: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Sarmiento vs. Racing Club: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-1.5)Racing Club won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-2.5)Racing Club won
- Spread: Racing Club (-1.5)CA Sarmiento won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.