La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa8d3e1e7111f72413f87dfafe0d24f2b2eca706c2f7fcc92db6cbc57c18ea86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RCD Espanyol de Barcelonaof Real Madrid CF, RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked Real Madrid CF | 13c | 7,536$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Real Madrid CF | 18c | 620$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Real Madrid CF | 33c | 363.51$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +13.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…a467backed Real Madrid CF | 12c | 303.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Real Madrid CF | 17c | 147.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Real Madrid CF | 15c | 129.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696c…2571backed Real Madrid CF | 15c | 119.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Real Madrid CF | 17c | 88.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | 78c | 60.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Real Madrid CF | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…bf19backed Real Madrid CF | 35c | 57.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | 71c | 45.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 281 | 38.8%109 W · 172 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | 67c | 32.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)this page
- RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.