Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Tjen vs Charaeva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb03a2232d19a20597d018a0164441942754ad871275a61a37785ee3c1c80660
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tjenof Tjen, Charaeva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed Charaeva | 53c | 4,552$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414.6 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Tjen | 47c | 820.91$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.08 | 373 | 57.6%215 W · 158 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed Tjen | 47c | 723.47$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.44 | 214 | 51.4%110 W · 104 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Tjen | 47c | 617.81$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.44 | 234 | 57.3%134 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Tjen | 47c | 589.16$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.25 | 1,118 | 60.2%673 W · 445 L | +22.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tjen | 47c | 580.92$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.89 | 9,454 | 44.4%4,193 W · 5,261 L | -249.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Tjen | 47c | 412$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.36 | 198 | 57.6%114 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…969abacked Tjen | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…6e47backed Tjen | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Tjen | 46c | 154.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Tjen | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb096…fd64backed Tjen | 47c | 37.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Tjen vs Charaevathis page
- Madrid Open: Janice Tjen vs Alina CharaevaJanice Tjen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.