Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb2e9cb271db8922f7d2d09feda78cce0e73d81d1b83da9d7990fb28bcb02f0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 76c | 836.91$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.17 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 772.61$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.45 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed No | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 30c | 328.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 23c | 169.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…f560backed Yes | 41c | 147.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 102.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 101.24$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 64c | 67.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…9da6backed Yes | 25c | 59.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 27c | 58.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked No | 73c | 58.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 23c | 58.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 57c | 47.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes | 25c | 43.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 43c | 37.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 76c | 29.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…d49ebacked No | 77c | 17.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16e…6a23backed No | 77c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…e7a4backed No | 77c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…fd13backed No | 77c | 13.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-01-31?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-01-31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.