Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Nevada vs. San José State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb9573d86f90b29b98156d3ffe3d225a838ab0613e616202a0866f08be2fc270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nevadaof Nevada, San José State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed San José State | 26c | 3,000$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.5 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Nevada | 74c | 2,901$2,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.31 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…38adbacked San José State | 16c | 908.95$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.1 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Nevada | 62c | 804.6$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.6 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Nevada | 75c | 687.19$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.26 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0a…e4eabacked Nevada | 77c | 650$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed San José State | 2c | 649.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed San José State | 31c | 499.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked San José State | 24c | 342.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Nevada | 75c | 310.62$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…cba2backed Nevada | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Nevada | 79c | 253.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed San José State | 21c | 224.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nevada | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3c…73e8backed Nevada | 77c | 119.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe69f…52debacked San José State | 44c | 106.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5679…d458backed Nevada | 69c | 105.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked San José State | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed San José State | 26c | 94.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc103…81e8backed Nevada | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a61…08ccbacked San José State | 25c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7f…1bd6backed Nevada | 49c | 44.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…ad7bbacked San José State | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe8…83e0backed Nevada | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Nevada | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…c756backed Nevada | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef5…36cdbacked Nevada | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.