Tennis · resolved market
ITF Hillcrest: Onalee Wagner vs Astrid Cirotte
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe85b0c894175e3fa12be3084db5c577eb05543990f092cfd3e5efa133e78e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astrid Cirotteof Onalee Wagner, Astrid Cirotte
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Onalee Wagner | 16c | 2,598$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Onalee Wagner | 15c | 2,561$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.83 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Astrid Cirotte | 79c | 1,040$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.5 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Onalee Wagner | 36c | 696.94$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.9 | 372 | 35.2%131 W · 241 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Astrid Cirotte | 79c | 398.73$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…9e95backed Onalee Wagner | 32c | 362.5$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…b7c9backed Onalee Wagner | 32c | 362.5$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 154 | 56.5%87 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Onalee Wagner | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 788 | 47.5%374 W · 414 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Astrid Cirotte | 78c | 324$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 277 | 53.4%148 W · 129 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c44…9756backed Astrid Cirotte | 78c | 310$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 52cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…3c88backed Onalee Wagner | 33c | 287.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Onalee Wagner | 11c | 241.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…84e9backed Onalee Wagner | 14c | 159.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…9c0cbacked Onalee Wagner | 13c | 111.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Astrid Cirotte | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Astrid Cirotte | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Onalee Wagner | 26c | 82.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Astrid Cirotte | 79c | 63.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 363 | 78.2%284 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Astrid Cirotte | 70c | 58.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Astrid Cirotte | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -17.1wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Onalee Wagner | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Onalee Wagner | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,459 | 50.1%731 W · 728 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Onalee Wagner | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 604 | 52.5%317 W · 287 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Astrid Cirotte | 75c | 29.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…83a6backed Astrid Cirotte | 73c | 27.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed Astrid Cirotte | 75c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 266 | 64.7%172 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.