CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Morningstar vs Change The Game (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe91cf4a99920437ae239e863ececa159cdbd7066f5be2d89bb8d43b47365ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Morningstarof Morningstar, Change The Game
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Morningstar | 65c | 1,030$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.55 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Change The Game | 15c | 998.81$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.83 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Change The Game | 35c | 797.22$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.47 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -14.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Morningstar | 61c | 353.14$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.62 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Change The Game | 39c | 328$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 543 | 48.6%264 W · 279 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Morningstar | 77c | 309.38$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Change The Game | 15c | 167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Change The Game | 17c | 160.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 517 | 55.9%289 W · 228 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16fd…b4d3backed Morningstar | 71c | 149.91$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 298 | 40.3%120 W · 178 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Change The Game | 33c | 131.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 335 | 39.4%132 W · 203 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Change The Game | 40c | 71.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Change The Game | 32c | 69.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Change The Game | 34c | 50.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc548…c22ebacked Change The Game | 38c | 47.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Morningstar | 66c | 42.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de7…00cbbacked Morningstar | 67c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Morningstar | 61c | 22.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Morningstar | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Morningstar vs Change The Game (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 1 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Morningstar vs Change The Game - Map 2 WinnerChange The Game won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.