College Football · resolved market
Spread: Arizona (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbfb23fc2729e2dd58c39ab76969973f30f8f27899374bb2643ec750653cb423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizonaof Arizona, Colorado
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona | 47c | 1,283$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.15 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…3af1backed Colorado | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602b…ea56backed Arizona | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…1471backed Colorado | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…4f34backed Colorado | 52c | 980$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…96fcbacked Arizona | 48c | 950$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…84f4backed Arizona | 48c | 900$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac49…8e2cbacked Colorado | 52c | 900$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e80…0270backed Arizona | 48c | 900$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…81a2backed Colorado | 52c | 880$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…1866backed Arizona | 48c | 860$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa074…a1aabacked Arizona | 48c | 855$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9b…2f20backed Colorado | 52c | 850$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…abadbacked Arizona | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Colorado | 53c | 755$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.15 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44d8…e1c2backed Colorado | 52c | 755$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…bbf3backed Arizona | 48c | 750$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…3112backed Colorado | 52c | 650$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Colorado | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Colorado | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…3bfebacked Colorado | 53c | 77.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona (-4.5)this page
- Arizona vs. ColoradoArizona won
- Arizona vs. Colorado: O/U 53.5Over won
- O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona (-5.5)Arizona won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.