Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Open Qualifier 1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc7083f4a8940d38f884b244c3a55f9d2da477b57ba59d9e779e10b595532959
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- the bugof NA, we'd win, the bug
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked NA, we'd win | 44c | 9,383$4,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,159.03 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked the bug | 56c | 8,243$4,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,662.27 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3d…8080backed NA, we'd win | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked the bug | 73c | 293.25$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked NA, we'd win | 12c | 253.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked NA, we'd win | 18c | 225$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed the bug | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked NA, we'd win | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed NA, we'd win | 14c | 147.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked the bug | 34c | 138$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed the bug | 70c | 134.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf50d…7ba8backed NA, we'd win | 16c | 101.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…59eabacked the bug | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed the bug | 34c | 83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…dad6backed NA, we'd win | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked the bug | 34c | 61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed the bug | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…e994backed the bug | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Open Qualifier 1 Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 1 Winnerthe bug won
- Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 2 Winnerthe bug won
- Game Handicap: the bug (-1.5) vs NA, we'd win (+1.5)the bug won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.