Us Politics · resolved market
Will Kathy Hochul attend Zohran Mamdani's swearing-in ceremony?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcb9c1519a368f6a2dc971437b6b4d9ee09336744a1e5b5afb9e56d02572c5d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes | 77c | 1,141$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 23c | 857$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2111…667fbacked No | 23c | 496$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked No | 23c | 385$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…9ef2backed No | 24c | 316$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 77c | 312$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 76c | 248$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes | 77c | 184$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 77c | 108$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Yes | 79c | 84.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed No | 23c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 77c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 76c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 69c | 18.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kathy Hochul attend Zohran Mamdani's swearing-in ceremony?this page
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend Zohran Mamdani's swearing-in ceremony?Yes won
- Will Barack Obama attend Zohran Mamdani's swearing-in ceremony?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders attend Zohran Mamdani's swearing-in ceremony?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump attend Zohran Mamdani's swearing-in ceremony?No won
- Will Eric Adams attend Zohran Mamdani's swearing-in ceremony?Yes won
- Will Lina Khan attend Zohran Mamdani's swearing-in ceremony?Yes won
- Will Michael Bloomberg attend Zohran Mamdani's swearing-in ceremony?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.