Fifa International · resolved market
Will Australia win on 2025-10-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcdf321f6d9e6a4b1082a82a498e795a549ae8203dfad9863316b7c514a03bee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 24c | 3,050$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.75 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 47c | 2,379$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.61 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 78c | 2,042$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.17 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 1,850$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.19 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 76c | 569$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.44 | 707 | 50.1%354 W · 353 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 25c | 555$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.03 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 79c | 541.82$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.72 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed3…a8dbbacked Yes | 23c | 452.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…dfb9backed Yes | 24c | 366.33$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.73 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 73c | 334.52$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.61 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed No | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 79c | 249.77$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.32 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed No | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 170$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.3 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 13c | 157.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.31 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 21c | 144.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 19c | 69.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…4630backed Yes | 22c | 67.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 79c | 65.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 21c | 63.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 79c | 50.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 79c | 33.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…fd63backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Australia win on 2025-10-10?this page
- Will Canada vs. Australia end in a draw?No won
- Will Canada win on 2025-10-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.