Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd65a0bae255281f10e304d8f550ad0629b57cc4340510087d11b966b1f33120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GLYPHof GLYPH, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Carstensz | 31c | 1,847$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.83 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed GLYPH | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.35 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked GLYPH | 75c | 461.03$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.29 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…97b5backed Carstensz | 10c | 340.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Carstensz | 27c | 286.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked GLYPH | 65c | 190$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…750abacked Carstensz | 33c | 177.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 163 | 28.8%47 W · 116 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Carstensz | 34c | 161.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…3fa8backed GLYPH | 71c | 141.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Carstensz | 35c | 141.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 191 | 45.5%87 W · 104 L | +13.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed Carstensz | 32c | 135.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked GLYPH | 76c | 116$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Carstensz | 23c | 112.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked GLYPH | 69c | 96.18$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c09…b6ffbacked GLYPH | 75c | 80.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked GLYPH | 68c | 57.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…8d00backed GLYPH | 64c | 54.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed GLYPH | 68c | 52.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…d704backed GLYPH | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked GLYPH | 63c | 36.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…4498backed GLYPH | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked GLYPH | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group StageGLYPH won
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 1 WinnerGLYPH won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.